Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As the offensive developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably delivered by partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: seven people killed, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership operates on a premise understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
