A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that split the country and triggered turmoil, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with even the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both composes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
